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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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