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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd