Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
