A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
